What Does “peak Infection” Mean?

We are now at a stage where the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States is in the hundreds of thousands and the death toll is in the tens of thousands. While these numbers are grim, growth is slowing , a sign that handwashing, staying at home, and physical distancing are paying off.

Maybe, just maybe, we’ve reached the peak that everyone was talking about where the curve stays flat enough that we don’t completely overwhelm the system. Maybe, just maybe, the number of new cases will continue to fall.

However, reaching a peak is similar to lowering the stereo volume from 11 to 10. Yes, the volume has decreased, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe to take your hands off your ears. For this pandemic, breaking the peak means there are still many new cases; there are simply not so many of them. It’s also important to remember that there are many more ongoing cases, which also means that people are still at high risk of getting sick.

Most of us realized that we needed to flatten the curve and stayed at home to protect the safety of healthcare workers. This titanic effort has helped, although it may seem too little, too late for those who have fallen ill or lost loved ones. It is also a cold comfort to the millions who have lost their jobs .

What’s next?

In connection with the decrease in the number of new cases, the question arises: what will happen next?

Since we all struggle to survive from one moment to the next, it is worth spending a little time thinking about what awaits us in the coming weeks. As much as we want the end to be near, there is a long road ahead of us, starting only with an initial recession in new cases.

“If we open too early, we’ll have a surge again,” says Hardeep Singh, professor of medicine at Baylor College of Medicine .

Additional testing required

The World Health Organization has formulated six criteria that must be met before a society can fully reopen itself. This includes powertrain control; the ability to safely test and take care of everyone; minimizing risk in hospitals, nursing homes and workplaces; supervision of import cases; and ensuring full community participation.

At the moment, the US is not yet ready to open.

“We’re not doing enough testing,” Singh says. There is a lack of testing and a lack of comprehensive contact tracing , especially in areas with high infection rates. This means that in many cases, when someone tests positive, the people they may have contacted are not notified or given the opportunity to get tested.

“Trials are only good if they are followed by containment,” Singh says. “The problem with reopening is that we need to strengthen contact tracing and containment measures.”

Opening too early will lead to more cases

Already now we see people impatient to re-open society. States such as Georgia , Texas, Tennessee and South Carolina have announced plans to lift some of the restrictions. This is despite the fact that there are still new confirmed cases, as well as in Georgia, Texas and South Carolina, where testing rates are among the lowest in the country .

“People want to go back to work,” Singh says.

People want their old life back. They want to return to some semblance of how the world used to be. But as much as people want to return to their old lives, we are not even close to making it possible.

Opening too quickly will likely lead to a new spike in cases, which will trigger a new wave of blockages. This is especially true if there are not enough tests available, as widespread testing helps experts know when infections are brewing in the community, long before patients start showing up in intensive care units. There is also the simple fact that the spread of the community will differ from state to state, and in cities and rural areas. Without enough testing, we won’t know what to predict or what happens until it’s too late.

“Some plans need to be flexible,” Singh says, adding that people need to get used to a different lifestyle for a while. As we approach the peak of infections, we should remember that we are in this state for a long time.