New Data Has Surfaced on Coronavirus Vaccines and in Fact One Can Hope
Moderna announced today that its coronavirus vaccine is 94.5% effective. This is the second candidate for the vaccine (after Pfizer, with a 90% rate), which gave us the opportunity to evaluate the results of the third stage in advance, and again the news is good, but with caveats.
What is this vaccine?
Moderna, like Pfizer, is an mRNA vaccine . No mRNA vaccine had hit the market yet, so it was an open question if the technology was good enough to create a vaccine that works in the real world, not just in the laboratory. It’s good news that there are two different candidates for mRNA vaccines at work. So far, the approach seems to be successful.
Both vaccines require two doses for complete protection, but there is one huge difference between vaccines in terms of distribution: Pfizer vaccine must be stored at very low temperatures, while Moderna vaccine can be stored in a conventional freezer. If necessary, Moderna’s can be stored in the refrigerator for up to a month after thawing.
What do we know and what we don’t know?
So far, both companies have published minimal information on their vaccines. We do not have complete results, and in both cases the tests are still pending.
In the Moderna study, out of 95 COVID cases among trial participants, only five were in people who received the vaccine. The remaining 90 were in the control group, in which people received fake (“placebo”) injections containing only saline. (The Pfizer study had 94 cases and was at least 90% effective.)
Moderna provided slightly more information than Pfizer, including that 11 cases of COVID were severe, all in people who did not receive the vaccine.
As in the other study, this study did not include people who are pregnant or breastfeeding, people who have previously been infected with the coronavirus, or people with some type of serious illness.
The side effects were mild enough for the company to say the vaccine was “generally well tolerated,” with fatigue and muscle aches being the most common serious side effects.
How close are we to getting the vaccine?
It will still be time. Moderna and Pfizer expect they will have enough data in the next few weeks to apply for approval, but this is just the beginning of the process. The FDA will have to consider whether the vaccine has sufficient potential benefits to outweigh the potential risks, and whether there is sufficient information to make such a decision. You can read more about the approval process here .
Even if all goes well, it will be months before most of us can consider getting vaccinated, as it takes time for everyone to produce a vaccine. The New York Times reports that Pfizer thinks they may have 50 million doses by the end of the year, while Moderna thinks they will have 20 million. This means that if vaccinations begin in January, only a small number of people who are likely to work at high risk will be able to receive these vaccines initially. For most of us at lower risk, mid-2021 is the earliest time we can count on.
Much more can happen from now on. The actual efficiency may be much less than these initial figures; the security profile may be worse; we may have problems distributing the vaccine to anyone who wants it; enough people can give it up and keep us away from the level of immunity that protects our society as a whole.
But if these vaccines do work, this may be the only time we have to make it through the holiday season, when the number of coronavirus cases is rising to record numbers. The next year could be better.