Is the Flu Really Worse Than COVID-19?
COVID-19 and influenza are respiratory illnesses that can be fatal. One is still rare in the US, while the other is widespread. Should we fear one more than the other?
Since influenza is much more common, we have advised you to channel any nerve energy associated with coronavirus into a flu shot so that you do not confuse yourself or your healthcare providers with flu-like symptoms. Along the same lines, good hygiene practices such as washing your hands and staying at home when you are sick can help curb the spread of any of these diseases.
But completely ignoring the seriousness of COVID-19 is impractical. This is a very serious disease and a definite threat if you live in one of the locations (such as Wuhan, China) where the outbreak is currently occurring. From a public health perspective, governments and health systems around the world need to know how to monitor this and do business appropriately. Panic doesn’t help, but neither does apathy.
We asked epidemiologist Tara S. Smith to help understand how influenza compares to coronavirus in general. She is a public health expert who oversees both science and how people report infectious diseases.
What’s more contagious?
“SARS-CoV-2 appears to be more infectious than the average annual flu,” Smith says. (This is the new official name for the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.) A person with COVID-19 tends to transmit it to about three other people , compared to about 1.5 for seasonal flu.
But we still don’t have a complete picture of how the disease spreads. You can catch the flu before your symptoms begin, but whether this is happening with the new coronavirus remains an open question. We were also unable to conduct very extensive testing for coronavirus, so it is possible that there are more cases than has been officially estimated. This week, the CDC plans to begin testing for coronavirus on samples taken from people with flu-like symptoms, regardless of their travel history.
Which disease is actually worse?
“I think there is still a lot of unknown to make this ‘scary’ calculation still difficult to understand,” Smith says. She notes that we have a vaccine for partial protection against influenza , but there is no effective prevention against coronavirus yet.
COVID-19 appears to have a higher mortality rate than influenza, with estimates ranging from 18% among people with the disease who had pneumonia when they were tested to under 2% when experienced by a person with milder symptoms or no – or symptoms. (The equivalent number for influenza is much less than 1%.)
So what should we be worried about?
I asked Smith if Americans should be worried about the virus, given what we know, or if they should be sure that it is rare. “I’m in the middle,” she says. The situation in China is serious and she has heard from people in the United States who have had panic attacks worried about COVID-19.
“I don’t think we need to lose sleep or get hung up on it, but I think it’s always wise to consider every opportunity.” Smith says her family is always prepared for emergencies in general, including power outages, with essential supplies on hand. If quarantine or supply problems affect your family, it would be a good idea to have an emergency kit with essential supplies with you; We have several guides for building such a kit, including this one .
This does not mean that it is time to panic, you just need to monitor the developing situation. “Even the experts don’t know how this will evolve,” Smith says, “so I think it’s important to stay in the loop and know what’s going on.”