Create the Perfect Brace for March Madness With Math
The NCAA just released the official March Madness standings , and the only thing that separates you from the ideal group is a little math logic. It’s time to win this office pool.
We spoke with data analyst and bracetologist Walter Sun, who created and leads the Bing Predicts project at Microsoft. Their data mining system is used to predict everything from final game scores to reality TV winners, and Bing teamed up with the NCAA to use their statistical model (which includes wins and losses records, conference rankings, and even social data ) to build the official bracket. Here are the most important tips Sun and his team have learned over the years to build March Madness braces, and how you can use them to your advantage.
Check the “last ten” of each team
To get a good idea of where each team is in terms of ability, endurance and tournament confidence, Sun invites you to take a look at their “last ten”. Also known as the “novelty” factor , this is a complete statistical breakdown of their last ten games. What’s their record of wins and losses? Are any of their star players injured? How many games have they won in a row?
A team making a 6-4 tournament without serious injury is usually a better pick than even a higher ranked 7-3 record team that lacks their star power ahead, no matter how they each performed in during most of the regular tournament. season. Also consider how many points they won or lost in each game. Sun explains that no NCAA champion has ever lost 30 points or more in the regular season, so keep that in mind. You can find all of these statistics and more information on the NCAA men’s or women’s basketball websites or the CBS Sports website .
Beware of the hot hand
However, Sun warns that teams with a hot hand or teams currently on a winning streak should be selected with caution . If you think you’re ready to pick a winner based on their last ten, it doesn’t hurt to take a broader look at the entire season just in case. Sun believes that it is better to choose teams with consecutive hot hand streaks than teams with streaks that only appear at the end of the season.
For example, if a 10-0 team played an 8-2 team, but a 10-0 team didn’t have similar winning streaks all season, and an 8-2 team did, you might be better off going with Team 8-2. Watch for trends and you are likely to earn some extra points in the long run.
Consider the strength of each team’s schedule
When you look back at a team’s performance, Sun also invites you to take into account each team’s schedule. The teams are divided into separate conferences by country. And, due to the lack of better language, some teams invited to the tournament play weaker teams during the regular season, while others have to play with stronger teams. For example, there is a big difference between participating in ACC and SWAC conferences. This means that not all team records of wins and losses are necessarily the same.
A team in a SWAC conference with a 14-4 win / loss rate (in a conference) cannot have the same value as a team with a 14-4 in an ACC (in a conference). Look back to see who each team played against and how they dealt with tougher teams (or what their performance was with teams outside of their conference). Unfortunately, there is no exact way to convert such numbers, but it is important to consider when choosing. If you’re not sure which teams are going to be stronger at the conference, a quick Google search or some time looking at college basketball news and analysis on Deadspin will help you.
Choose wisely for your disorder.
Everyone loves good upset and Cinderella stories, but they are actually pretty rare. Don’t overdo your frustrated predictions. Usually the data speaks. If a team has a solid track record of wins and losses, no injury and generally prefers to win, they should be your choice.
As Sun explains, having the right teams for the Final Four will earn you the same points as picking all the first round winners correctly, so it’s important that you don’t go crazy. If a team looks like a powerhouse that likes to go all the way, don’t knock them out because you don’t like them or because you want your grid to look different than everyone else’s.
Teams that travel further usually do worse
You are probably well aware of how exhausting travel can be. It’s the same with athletes. If you’re looking for real insider advice, Sun’s data suggests teams that travel further ahead of the game tend to perform worse. In the interests of fairness, the NCAA tournament forces each team to travel to a different location to play their games, but some teams have to go much further than others.
According to Sun, this makes a big difference. He recommends that you check each team’s road record to see how they typically perform outside of their element and how far they’ve come before each game. If possible, see what their record is at that particular location (if they’ve played there before). A team with a decent track record that has to travel less than their rival has the edge.
Use technology to make the right choice
By now, you should be able to build a pretty solid bracket, but if you need more help there are several tools you can use. In terms of points, the most important part of building a winning bracket is getting the Final Four, Championship Game, and NCAA Champion correct. But every point counts, so it is still profitable to find winners at the very beginning of the tournament. The problem is there are tons of teams to choose from.
According to Microsoft polls, most people (about 80%) only follow five teams at a time, even if they are investing in student basketball. This makes filling your grid with the remaining 63 commands you don’t follow hard or time consuming. If you need to fill in some questionable areas in your grid (perhaps for games between teams that are less well known or who don’t like to go very far), you can check out Bing’s Smart Grid selection for this year’s tournament. To Sun’s credit, Bing’s predictions last year were 73% accurate for the men’s event and 79% accurate for the women’s event .
You can also get predictions and detailed analysis at Sportsline . Some of the content is locked to premium users only ($ 10 per month), but it might be worth it if you’re in the mood to win. A premium membership also gives you access to predictions and analysis for other sports such as the NFL, MLB, and NHL. If you want something a little more interactive, FiveThirtyEight has a grid that you can hover over to see each team’s odds on their way to the championship. Unfortunately, their table is not completely filled out and is updated only after each round, but it can be used for free. Also worth looking at is CBS Sports . There are nine different bracketing predictions that you can find on their website from experienced bracket therapists. Last but not least, the NCAA official website and the NCAA Sports app for Android and iOS are great places to track stats and read game news.
When it comes to picking Sun, he believes Chattanooga is a good potential dark horse this year, as they have won championships in both the regular season and conference championships. They also have a decent roadworthy track record. Xavier is another team that deserves a high seeding, but they lost 32 points to Villanova earlier this year (which contradicts typical tournament championship figures).