When Will You Actually Give Birth?
In month-of-birth clubs, it’s a modern phenomenon, when unfamiliar pregnant women gather in online groups depending on the month of their birth – something always happens. After nearly a year of condolences on posts about fixes involving baby names, ignorant partners, and the weird shit that happens to your body , you’ll start seeing a small number of birth announcements accompanied by photos of bouncy red-faced newborns. It’s fun! New mothers are showered with congratulations and best wishes. Then, after a few weeks, you will see more ads. And another photo. Soon the excitement dies down. Those who are left standing (or, more likely, whimpering in fetal position) begin to wonder when their turn will come. Messages become desperate. I’m so jealous. I’m so uncomfortable. WHEN DO I GIVE?!
Now I myself am 38 weeks pregnant, I am almost at this stage. I’m not after the big point (because, uh, all the tiny people are a little scary), but I’m wondering when this will all happen. Are there any scientific predictions at all? Any information I can cling to?
Yes, actually.
It turns out, as reported by The Boston Globe , the most likely date of birth is seven days before your due date . Interesting. This number is based on a “huge sample of birth information” compiled by Brookings Institution researcher and co-author of WhenToExpect.com, Matt Chingos. Check out the interactive diagram on the website. Calculations include spontaneous labor (when a woman gives birth without any induction intervention), as well as planned caesarean section and planned inductions.
There is a small caveat. As The Globe notes: “It is possible that these procedures, which are usually performed a week before the actual due date, are the cause of some early birth. However, other researchers who weeded out planned births and looked only at spontaneous births found a similar pattern, which suggests that babies still love to show up early, even when not coaxed. “
The exact date will of course vary from woman to woman, with many different variables playing a role. According to the report, 1) the older you are, the more likely you are to give birth earlier, 2) the first babies are usually born a little later than subsequent babies, and 3) boys and girls arrive at about the same time. If you are expecting, you can get statistics on your birth date forecast at WhenToExpect.com . (I entered my details, and, apparently, I have the highest chance of having a baby in a week! Wow!)
Regarding the time at which you will give birth, a 10-year study by the City University of London found that babies are most likely to be born at 4 a.m., with most births occurring between 1 and 7 a.m. It’s time for childbirth. after spontaneous delivery and will differ from cesarean section and planned inductions.
Why in the middle of the night? Peter Martin, lead author of the study, explains that this is possibly related to human evolution. He writes: “For animals that live in groups that are mostly active and often dispersed during the day and come together to rest at night, the onset of labor at night and birth in the early morning hours means that the mother and newborn baby can count on some protection from predators. “
While these predictions may or may not apply to you as a person, they give you a fair warning: Get this hospital bag ready sooner rather than later. If possible, try to take a nap during the day. And maybe take a break from birth month clubs if they annoy you. Your child will be here – maybe even earlier than you expect.