How to Predict the Weather When Your Apps Are Giving Conflicting Forecasts
We have strange weather, right? I don’t know where you live, but I’m guessing it’s on the same planet as me, and here in the northeastern United States, a “typical” day includes a rain tantrum in the morning, hot and humid around the middle day. in the afternoon, then it’s cold and, perhaps, in the evening, welcome to work. The unpredictability of the weather forces me to consult at least two weather apps before deciding whether it is safe to cycle to work. But more often than not, one app tells me that it will be clear all day, while another predicts a 30% chance of rain. What to do?
I am using two apps, Dark Sky and Weather Underground for iOS. I cannot tell you which is more accurate; I can only say that they rarely agree. The best rule of thumb for deciding whether you should bike to work, whether you should try to squeeze in this run, whether you should take an umbrella with you when app predictions contradict each other is a manifestation of negative bias . That is, believe the forecast with the worst news. If Dark Sky says Cloudy and Wunderground says 30% chance of rain, trust Wunderground and grab your cloak. This way you are prepared for the worst. You probably have a bias towards negativity in other areas of your life where it doesn’t help you – you take criticism more seriously than compliments. In most other aspects of your life, negative bias is not good for you. When it comes to the weather, rely on it.
Another factor, of course, is your instinct or, as Lifehacker staff writer Nick Douglas puts it, “Look with your face.” You might think this advice was too simple to even articulate, but the whole reason we test our apps is because we don’t trust ourselves to determine the weather. If both apps say the coast is clear, but there are definitely dark clouds overhanging, you must assume that you are living here at the moment and in a place in time in the world, you know that you are watching and you are watching that it will rain. …