Recession Will Complicate Trump’s Re-Election
More than a year is left before the presidential elections, but one of the topics that comes out on top in the list of discussions is the economy. With signs pointing to a downturn , how will our economic health affect elections?
President Trump does not appear to be concerned about this. “The economy is phenomenal right now,” he told a New Hampshire radio station, according to a Wall Street Journal report . “We are doing phenomenal with the normalized interest rate. We’ve had a couple of bad days. But we’re going to have very good days. “
His opponents on the other side of the aisle are unlikely to be so optimistic about the economy. Elizabeth Warren blogged about “an impending economic collapse ” last month, and many Democratic candidates have devoted entire sections of their policies to bolstering the economy, raising wages and supporting a shrinking middle class. As trade negotiations continue, candidates will discuss the impact of the new tariffs on consumer spending and business expansion.
Aside from debate and political positions, Trump’s chances of re-election will also be limited by history: Republicans are usually elected when the economy is booming, and Democrats are elected when the economy is in a downturn.
The Washington Post has some historical data worth reviewing (or at least putting aside in a memory bank for the next night out):
- After the Civil War, only one president won re-election, and there was a decline in the last two calendar years of his first presidential term: William McKinley in 1900.
- Since then, all four re-elected presidents who have survived such a recession have lost: William Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush.
- During the same period, all 10 who tried to be re-elected without such a recession won: Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt (3 times), Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama …
Historical trends do not guarantee Trump will fight for re-election. But they indicate that the economic downturn will further exacerbate campaign debate. As the economic outlook evolves, so will the chances of either side of winning the White House.