Five Signs Your Neighborhood Is About to Change (for the Worse)
There are many factors that influence the purchase of a home , but one of the most important is the neighborhood it is located in. In fact, for those who love their home, the second most important reason is the neighborhood it is located in .
What people don’t always consider when they’re looking for a home is that neighborhoods can change. Often, this happens naturally as families move from one area to another, subtly changing the vibe and traditions each time. But sometimes neighborhoods undergo dramatic and sudden changes due to development plans and other factors that directly affect every aspect of the neighborhood. The bad news is that this means you could end up with a home in a neighborhood you no longer like. The good news is that with a little detective work, you can predict whether a neighborhood will change before you buy a home there.
Empty lots
One simple and obvious sign that a neighborhood is on the cusp of major transformation? Vacant lots , especially if they are actively maintained and developed. Even if the lots have been vacant for a long time and local residents have grown accustomed to them, there may be long-term plans to develop them. This is especially true for very large lots (50 acres or more), which could easily become mixed-use or commercial developments in a rapidly growing neighborhood.
There are several signs that an empty lot is about to ruin your idyllic neighborhood:
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Environmental Remediation: Look for signs that the site is undergoing cleanup to remove or isolate contaminants. These projects often last for years and may not seem urgent for months or years, but they are actually an indication that a developer has plans for the site.
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Utility Extension Requests: If a landowner plans to develop a site, they may have requested permission to install sewer and water lines long ago. These requests are public records, so you can find them at your local Board of Utilities or similar government agency.
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Recent transactions. If someone has recently purchased empty lots in the area, it’s often a sign that a development is in the works. You (or your real estate agent) can check local sales records to see what’s happening nearby.
Check the plan
What’s pretty obvious and overlooked is that most local governments have a master plan for future development, and it’s almost always publicly available. Looking at your neighborhood’s master plan can give you an idea of large mixed-use or commercial projects that may be coming up in the years to come. It’s also often helpful to look at the minutes of your local city council meeting to see if any development plans have been discussed recently. Another thing to keep an eye out for? Efforts to have your neighborhood declared historic , which can dramatically change the look and feel of your neighborhood.
Even if you don’t see any signs of major changes in your neighborhood, it’s worth paying attention to companies moving into commercial or office space relatively nearby. An influx of large corporations setting up their offices in new buildings nearby can trigger a wave of new road construction and mixed-use developments to support the commuter population, and some of these projects will undoubtedly impact your neighborhood.
Take a look at the new road projects
Most people avoid buying a home next to a busy road. But what happens when a busy road gets closer to you ? Local and regional governments are constantly considering new road projects to ease traffic and provide access to new commercial developments. Even if your home is a few miles from the nearest highway, over time (and not as quickly as you might imagine), these roads can get closer and closer.
It’s impossible to predict what might happen decades from now, but you can usually check to see if new road projects are already in the works. Your state’s Department of Transportation likely has a web page that lists and updates road projects. New Jersey, for example, lists several road repair and construction projects, with budgets and estimated completion dates. A few minutes spent on a page like this could save you years of frustration over an overpass being built in your backyard.
Check zoning laws
I mentioned earlier the importance of reviewing city council minutes. This is always a good step when considering moving to a new neighborhood, as it shows not only what has happened in the past, but also what local residents are planning to do in the future. Are local zoning laws about to change to allow mixed-use development in your neighborhood? Is someone asking for a rule change to allow a business to open next door to your home? Reviewing city council minutes can give you the heads-up you need.
You can also contact planning or zoning departments directly to simply ask about upcoming changes that may affect your neighborhood.
Time for evaluations
When my wife and I bought our house, we didn’t know that the city hadn’t done a property reassessment (aka tax reassessment) for 14 years. Ten years (!) later, the city finally announced a new assessment, and everyone in our neighborhood braced for a shocking property tax increase.
If we had done a little research before buying the house, we might still have gone ahead with the purchase, but we would have done so knowing that our property taxes were artificially low. There is no set standard for how often a municipality reviews property taxes, but it typically happens every five to 10 years at most. If you look at the tax records for your potential neighborhood and see that this hasn’t happened in more than five years, you should consider the very real possibility that your taxes will skyrocket shortly after you buy the home. This could impact your neighborhood by forcing residents — the very neighbors who make the place such a nice place to live — to move out and sell their homes to wealthier people who might turn the place into a development zone, upgrading everything in sight.