What People Are Getting Wrong This Week: Is the NFL Rigged?
The weeks of pre-Super Bowl hype have begun, and with them the annual American tradition of calling the NFL rigged. Local drunks, AM sports show hosts and message board experts all agree: The decision has already been made.
Last year, the most interesting conspiracy theory was that the Pentagon rigged the entire 2024 NFL season so that the Chiefs could appear in the Super Bowl and Taylor Swift could help Democrats get re-elected in 2024. A less esoteric theory about why the Chiefs are sure to win the Super Bowl: “Follow the money.” They make compelling arguments, but they are wrong.
Why “they” decided to fix the Super Bowl
The rough consensus among NFL conspiracy theorists is that the National Football League has pegged the 2025 season in favor of the Kansas City Chiefs because it makes everyone the most money. If the Chiefs had lost in the playoffs, the league wouldn’t have sold as many Patrick Mahomes jerseys. ABC will not be able to charge that price for advertising that airs during the game. We may not have to listen to Chiefs coach Andy Reid say “bundle rooski” as often; Online gambling companies will have fewer players; the guys selling hot dogs outside the stadium in New Orleans would sell fewer hot dogs. You get the idea: the Chiefs’ success is good business.
Is it even possible to fix the NFL game?
It’s definitely possible to fix a football match – not in the same way that professional wrestling matches are fixed, but it can and will happen without players, coaches, trainers and team owners having to agree to a predetermined outcome. It is theoretically possible to fix a football game with a handful of dishonest referees.
NFL football teams are usually fairly evenly matched (especially when we’re talking about the Super Bowl), and the outcome of games is regularly decided by the sole decision of the officials. And the esoteric rules of football make the task easier. Refereeing a soccer match requires subjective interpretation of vaguely worded text—for example, for a ball to be “caught,” the receiver must “perform some action normal to the game (e.g., remove the ball, extend it forward, move it to the side). extra step, turn into the outfield, avoid or drive away an opponent)” or “maintain control of the ball long enough to do so.” So there is room for interpretation. Referees also decide where to place the ball after a play, whether a blocker is holding another player, how much pass interference “counts,” whether conduct is “unsportsmanlike,” and a million other decisions. In some situations, the referees may even randomly call a touchdown , so you can see how the referees can give the ball to either team. And it’s not like this has never happened before.
Evidence that judges are helping Kansas City.
Here are some questionable decisions in this weekend’s very close playoff matchup between the Chiefs and Buffalo Bills:
Remember the definition of the word “catch”? This is not an example of one:
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This is an incomplete pass. Or is it an interception?
Speaking of umpires deciding where the ball will be set, in the clip below the Bills are either just above or just behind the first down line. One referee immediately says, “First down.” The other one disagrees. Solution: Chiefs. Even though a close reading reveals that it was in fact a first down. By the way, this was the second first down Bill earned in the same series of downs. The third down call was also BS:
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This wasn’t just the final playoff game. Throughout the season, fans have noted that a tackle on Patrick Mahomes has been called a “rough passer” despite the fact that it is not particularly rough. Look at this “massive hit” in the Chiefs’ playoff game against the Houston Texans. (Video available only on YouTube.) Notice the disbelief in the commentators’ voices and note Mahomes’ obvious failure. Here’s another fail, just because it’s funny:
And this continues throughout the season. In the Chiefs’ last nine games, they have not been awarded a single roughing penalty, while opponents have suffered the costly penalty six times.
Case against NFL rigging football for Chiefs
It’s hard to watch the Chiefs this season and come to any conclusions, but “the fix is in.” The sheer number of close games in which the Chiefs have managed to pull out a last-minute victory, often with the help of a favorable decision, is proof enough: 11 games in one season that were won by a single point? It really does feel like a scam unless you’re a Chiefs fan.
If you’re a Chiefs fan, you’re looking at the best football team in the world, led by arguably the best quarterback to ever play and coached by the best coach since Vince Lombardi. The tight wins in the final minutes are a testament to excellent time management, with the Chiefs doing just enough to win and doing it on purpose. Stream of penalties for rough passes? Also strategically: Mahomes fails because it’s legal and it works. He is also a running quarterback, so he will get hit more often than a more stationary player and will therefore receive more penalties.
It is human nature to emphasize events that confirm our preconceptions and ignore those that do not. Believe it or not, avid sports fans may not test themselves for confirmation bias as rigorously as they should. How many times have rough passes been thrown against other running quarterbacks? Someone is probably watching, but fans aren’t too interested in comparative analysis.
Always consider motive
The idea that the NFL as an organization would have the power and influence to fix the football season (assuming they wanted to) seems far-fetched enough to be dismissed out of hand. NFL teams are owned by various millionaires and billionaires who arguably have as much power as the league. They would not accept a rigged game (unless it was rigged in their team’s favor).
As for the “storyline” argument, I would be very surprised if the NFL believed that people who watch football are excited to see the damn Chiefs win another Super Bowl. I don’t have any evidence other than atmosphere, but if the idea is to create a compelling narrative, the NFL needs better writers. The Chiefs winning three in a row is a weak story compared to “The always terrible Washington Chiefs, led by a rookie quarterback, managed to win the Super Bowl against all odds” or even “Damn, the Detroit Lions are good at this.” year?”
Only the judges remain. The 2007 cheating scandal that rocked the NBA did happen and involved a referee, but it was one referee and he only called the games he was chosen to call. He didn’t try to make one team win over time. A league-wide conspiracy to favor the Chiefs (or any other team) would be far more complex than the NBA’s number-cruncher scheme, and would require scores of referees, line judges, mystery people reviewing contested decisions, and who knows who else to agree with. This. Someone will speak.
Judges are people just like us
Referees and linesmen are just as prone to unconscious bias as anyone else. They make mistakes. Maybe referees are more likely to call penalties in favor of the league’s most famous player? Of course, especially since he flops around like a damn football player. But are they doing this on purpose? Unlikely.
NFL referees make their way into the league, probably from high school sports, and if they do put on a big show, they make about a quarter of a million a year and sometimes see Taylor Swift in the stands. This is the job you want to keep. Besides, I assume that most judges, like most other people, take pride in doing a good job and are unlikely to risk giving it all up for some short-term gain. As Mike Pereira, a Fox Sports rules analyst and former head of NFL officiating, recently noted: “The fact that [officials] are looking out for any team or individual is an absolute myth. You don’t want to get fired.” .. You want to be right. People who say that don’t know a damn thing about refereeing until you put the uniform on, until you have to make such quick judgments…period.
Fortunately, the Super Bowl on February 9 will answer the question of fraud in the NFL once and for all. If the vastly superior Philadelphia Eagles lose to the overrated Chiefs, we’ll all know the fix has already been made.