It’s the Best Time to Buy a Home
The leaves are changing, the air is crisp, and the spring/summer home buying season is coming to an end. While other seasons typically see a boom in the housing market, homebuyers may find themselves in an unexpected position this fall.
According to a recent report from Realtor.com , the coming weeks could present a perfect storm of conditions for those looking to buy a home now. Let’s dive into why early October could be the golden hour for homebuyers in 2024 (relatively speaking).
Why autumn is the right time to buy a home
A Realtor.com analysis shows that the week of September 29 to October 5 is the ideal time to buy a home this fall. The housing market has been growing relatively slowly over the past few years, with high home prices and mortgage rates limiting buyer demand, the report noted.
This period is expected to offer a unique combination of favorable factors: lower mortgage rates, higher inventories and less competition. As the heightened activity of the spring and summer shopping seasons fades, these elements could combine to create a more favorable shopping market across the country.
Mortgage rate reduction
One of the most significant benefits for today’s buyers is the trend in mortgage rates. After reaching 7% throughout 2023 and early this year , rates have been falling steadily lately. While the decline was modest this week , 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to their lowest level in two years. According to the latest data from Freddie Mac , the average mortgage rate is now around 6%, a far cry from the 8% average they reached in the summer of 2023 .
This trend of lower mortgage rates results in potentially significant savings for buyers over the life of their loans. Even a fraction of a percentage point can have a significant impact on your monthly payments and total interest paid.
Seasonal changes in the housing market
Understanding the cyclical nature of the housing market is key to understanding why fall, especially early October, presents this opportunity. Spring and summer are peak shopping seasons, with high competition among buyers and potentially inflated prices due to demand. The benefit of off-peak in the fall is that sales activity begins to slow, meaning there is less competition for affordable housing.
According to Money.com , consumer demand in the first week of October is 29.5% lower than the peak season and 14% lower than the weekly average. Combine this with an increase in the number of active ads, and you’ll be in a winning position. In fact, a report from Realtor.com explains how active properties have increased significantly compared to last year: “The first week of October could see 37% more active listings than at the start of the year…Buyers I’m ready to save more than $14,000 per this week compared to the summer peak for a home with a median price of $445,000.”
However, nationally, listing activity and sales volume are still much lower than pre-pandemic levels.
What does this mean for you as a home buyer?
The combination of seasonal trends and current market conditions creates a number of benefits for fall homebuyers:
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More inventory . As the market cools, the number of available homes often increases. This gives buyers more options and reduces the need to make quick decisions.
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Potential decline in housing prices . Property values are now high and have been rising steadily for many years. But with demand slowing in the fall, sellers may at least be more willing to negotiate price. This is especially true for houses that have been on the market since the summer.
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Price reduction . A Realtor.com report suggests we may see more frequent and significant price reductions during this period.
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Slower pace . Without the madness of peak season, shoppers can spend more time considering their options and making informed decisions.
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Less competition . Fewer buyers in the market means less chance of bidding wars and more chances for bids to be accepted.
Bottom line
While the housing market can be unpredictable, data suggests that early October 2024 could be an exceptionally good time for potential home buyers compared to recent conditions. However, it is important to remember that real estate markets can vary significantly depending on location. While these national trends are promising, buyers should always consult local real estate professionals to understand the specific conditions in their target areas.
And for those who have been waiting for the right time to enter the housing market, the coming weeks could be the window of opportunity you’ve been looking for. With careful planning and the right guidance, you can settle into your new home before the holiday season arrives. If you’re interested in how other people navigate the housing market for the first time, or want to share your story , check out my How I Bought My First Home series here .