We’re Still in the First Wave
Despite being told for months that the new coronavirus is unlike anything we’ve dealt with in our time, we still have the temptation to think of it in terms of flu . (Although they are definitely not the same thing.) It makes sense because we are familiar with the flu and the flu season, and they seem to give us an insight into the COVID-19 pandemic. And while there are some similarities (for example, both diseases are especially dangerous for people at high risk), the World Health Organization (WHO) wants us to know that COVID-19 is different from influenza in one main sense: it is not seasonal. We all rode the same big wave, and it is still growing.
There is no such thing as “COVID season”
When the new coronavirus began to spread in early 2020, some suggested that when warmer weather hit , the outbreak would go away on its own. Sure, it was nice to cling to that little hope, but as epidemiologists and public health experts such as Dr. Mark Lipsich, professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics at Harvard T. School of Public Health, pointed out that this is not how COVID works .
At today’s virtual briefing in Geneva, WHO Representative Dr Margaret Harris told us the following :
“People are still thinking about the seasons. We all need to understand that this is a new virus and … this one behaves differently. Summer is a problem. This virus loves any weather. “
It still won’t end soon
On top of that, there has been a lot of talk about different “waves” of COVID-19, similar to what we believe happened during the 1918 influenza pandemic . The idea is that after the spread is controlled and stopped for a while , another round of new infections will begin . As places like New York – the original epicenter of the United States – have reached a point to reopen, it would seem that the rise in infection rates in places like Arizona and Florida is the “second wave” we have been warned about. But WHO officials want you to know that this is actually not the case.
In fact, WHO officials have gone to great lengths not to describe the COVID-19 resurgence (like the one currently happening in Hong Kong ) as “waves”. There’s a reason for that: using the term “waves” sounds like the spread of COVID-19 is beyond human control, although for now we know that concerted collective action can slow the spread, Reuters reported .
Here’s what Harris said about this in the same virtual briefing:
“We are in the first wave. It will be one big wave. It will rise and fall slightly. The best thing is to flatten it and turn it into something that splashes at your feet. “
What we can do?
While COVID-19 is not seasonal like the flu, that doesn’t mean we should be less prepared for this year’s flu season. That’s why getting the flu shot this year is even more important than ever . As Harris says, “If you have an increased incidence of respiratory disease when you already have a very high burden of respiratory disease, this puts even more pressure on the healthcare system.” In addition, she stresses the importance of continuing public health measures such as physical distancing, wearing masks and avoiding large crowds. (Yes, all of us, and yes, in the summer too.)
As encouraging as the thought that COVID is seasonal or wavy, this is not how it works. So go ahead, because as Lifehacker’s senior health editor Beth Skurecki told us over the course of several months, this isn’t going to end anytime soon, herd immunity won’t save us, and things are likely to get worse .