Think of Risk As a Spectrum
As the rules relax, we have to ask ourselves some weird questions: Is it safe to see a friend? Go to the park? Eat in a restaurant? No matter how many experts you ask, there will be no definite answer “yes” or “no”.
Some things pose a greater risk than others, and we have to get used to this idea, rather than look for hard and fast rules about what will keep us safe. Strict rules come in handy when there are certain actions that can easily and effectively counteract the risk: getting a vaccine, wearing a seat belt, not leaving a fire unattended.
But for our current problem, there is no simple equivalent of not getting sick with COVID-19 and not being a stepping stone for the virus to spread from one person to another. If you can’t abide by the strict rules of staying at home (which were ever considered a short-term solution and certainly not an easy way to live a lifetime), it’s time to start thinking of risk as a spectrum.
We know that spending time with other people is more dangerous than spending time alone. Prolonged, close contact is more dangerous than walking past someone on the street. Sitting six feet away from someone indoors is probably more dangerous than standing six feet away outdoors.
So we can plot spectra like the one above from epidemiologists Julia Marcus and Ellie Murray . Staying at home is safer than hanging out with others, which in turn is safer than a picnic, which is safer than an indoor party. And wherever you are on that spectrum, there are ways to further reduce your risk: wear a mask, keep your distance, invite fewer people, and avoid sharing utensils or toys.
With this knowledge, you can make informed decisions to reduce your risk. Personally, I wouldn’t go to a pre-pandemic style party right now, but last week I had a birthday party. There were only two people from the other house. We met in the open air and kept more than six feet apart the entire time (they were in the driveway, we were on deck).
Does the spectrum provide ideal protection? No. But this perception of risk is an important tool in avoiding quarantine fatigue . If we try to stick to rules that are too strict, many of us will end up frustrated, break them, and think we’ve already failed, so you might as well stop trying. Do not do this. Instead, let’s make decisions on a continuum.