When Will Grocery Stores Return to Normal?

I also thought toilet paper would be back on sale. I was used to seeing empty shelves in grocery stores and pharmacies, but assumed that once enough people bought their 20 packs of toilet paper, the shelves would return to normal.

But that did not happen. Over the past month, I’ve wondered if this is the new normal : queuing up, buying whatever is in stock, getting used to adjusted opening hours and store policies. If you, too, are wondering when toilet paper will come back, the answer is what you fear: not soon, and it’s difficult.

Yes we panicked

“Part of [why we buy toilet paper on impulse] is human disgust,” explained Dr. Simon Croom, professor of supply chain management at the University of San Diego . “We don’t want to be left without.”

So, you’re going to buy the largest TP package you can find, because you don’t want to think about the possibility that you won’t be enough.

This fear of lack can be exacerbated by the thought that you will be at home for the foreseeable future. Every time you take a roll out of the bathroom toilet, you will see what’s left. Every time you open kitchen cabinets, you can see in real time how much food you have. And, as Will Oremus points out to Marker , you use your own bathroom and kitchen more because you’re not going to work, school, or visiting your favorite restaurant once a week like you used to.

“Usually, when demand changes, it’s either a short-term spike or a small but significant increase,” Krum said. But the first wave of panic buying by buyers in early March gave way to persistent buying patterns that were outside the normal range. This is why you see empty grocery shelves a few weeks after we supposedly stocked up on toilet paper.

Think of it like a really long hurricane. You know a hurricane is coming, you see it coming on the map, and you go out to buy whatever you need to replace last year’s hurricane kit. But you wait and wait for the hurricane to come. And until the epicenter of the storm passes over your house, you will still have a sense of panic, that voice in your head saying that you are not ready.

The accident is not localized

Unlike a hurricane that affects a specific region, the coronavirus is much more widespread. Retailers have contingency plans, such as natural disasters, that may include re-routing items to other stores.

But it’s harder to move inventory to meet geographic needs when demand is everywhere. After Hurricane Katrina, Cruma said large-scale rebuilding work has made drywall more expensive and difficult to obtain in areas far from New Orleans.

“Different retailers react differently to panic buying,” Krum said. How much you, the consumer, notice this depends on the rules of that seller.

“Imagine how you handle the festive season, which lasts for weeks in mid-March,” said Krum. Then add the need to clean up your store and prevent it from overflowing. This is the perfect storm of complicating factors for stores, be they grocery stores, drug stores, or large retail stores.

But that doesn’t mean your local store might ask for additional TPs.

Product supply management is incredibly difficult

“The US supply chain is one of the most efficient in the world,” said Dr. Jose Holguin-Veras, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rensselaer Polytechnic . This efficiency means there is very little surplus – you can’t just crawl into the back of the warehouse to find a stash of toilet paper.

Toilet paper is primarily a domestic product, the demand for which usually does not vary so much. It is difficult for manufacturers to ramp up production, Crum said, especially when they may be understaffed.

“We prioritize our top-selling sizes to maximize the number of products we can ship to retailers,” said Lauren Fanroy of Procter & Gamble, which makes Charmin toilet paper. “And we remain focused on making our products available when and where people are. shopping in this very dynamic situation. “

Terry Ballack, spokeswoman for Kimberly-Clark, also said the company is manufacturing as quickly as possible to meet demand. “We have plans to meet the growing demand for our products as much as possible, including accelerating production and reallocating stocks to meet those needs,” he said. “We will continue to make adjustments to our plans as needed.” Kimberly-Clark manufactures Cottonelle and Scott products.

Okay, so toilet paper companies are accepting that . But that doesn’t mean that once that inventory is shipped to stores, everything will be back to normal throughout the store. Every item you see on the shelves has a different production schedule, so it’s difficult to predict when each shelf will fill up again. “Where does the product come from? Is it seasonal? How is it stored? “Different supply chains have different characteristics,” Krum said.

Or think about eggs. “There is little time to increase production,” Krum said. You have to raise chicks and wait for them to lay their eggs. The supplier can send eggs to areas where the shortage is greater than others, but he cannot snap his fingers and collect more eggs.

And adjustments take time, even when you get to the online store level.

Take Walmart’s most recent security measures, for example. Temperature checks were announced on Tuesday for employees, as well as the availability of masks and gloves for employees, but a Walmart spokesman stressed that it will take about three weeks to implement these measures in each store. And this is for a solution that requires essentially three kinds of items: masks, gloves, and thermometers.

These items are not even for sale. The Walmart supercenter sells about 120,000 different items.

We look forward to it together

It’s a matter of patience for you and me. And if you already have an adequate supply of toilet paper at home, for hygiene reasons, don’t try to buy more right away.

As Holguin-Veras explained, having a large enough supply of toilet paper that you can get your pets to jump over won’t really make you feel better, but it can deprive your neighbor of that resource. “As consumers, we have to be willing to suffer a little so that we don’t all suffer,” he said.

If you are thinking of calling your local supermarket or major store to find out when they receive a shipment of paper products, don’t be surprised if they don’t tell you (or pretend they don’t know). One salesperson I spoke with said he did not respond to any inquiries about stock levels. If this happens (for example, if a radio station calls and then announces to listeners when the store will receive its next TP shipment), it could provoke an influx of shoppers into the store trying to enforce physical distancing standards.

But the scarcity won’t last forever. “My guess is that once most people who have this instinctual reaction get their 2,000 shots, everything will subside,” Krum said.

“There is no cause for concern,” Holguin-Veras said, noting that the US is not at risk of significant food shortages for several months, even if production is cut or delayed.

“The question is how long can we last without going to the store,” Krum said. “You have to plan your consumption at home … We are not used to this.”