How Accurate Is the Caucasus in Iowa?
Meetings in Iowa will take place tonight – a turning point for Democrats that could well affect the remainder of the 2020 election. But what is a party meeting? And how does it differ from the primary one? Well, if you’ve ever wondered why meetings in Iowa are so important to the presidential election, or how the process itself works, then below you will find all the answers to your burning questions.
What are Iowa caucuses and how are they different from primaries?
In short, caucuses in Iowa include a gathering of the party’s registered voters to discuss preferred presidential candidates, as opposed to the primaries, in which voters vote in secret. According to PBS , state governments usually hold primaries, and the parties themselves hold meetings. Currently, only three states still rely solely on caucuses instead of primaries, including Nevada, Wyoming, and Iowa, and in each of these states, Democrats and Republicans set their own caucus rules.
How will the Iowa Democratic faction work?
Politico has an excellent illustrated guide to how the Democratic faction works in Iowa. Here’s the process in a nutshell:
- Democratic voters gather in designated areas such as community centers or libraries.
- They are divided into groups according to their preferred candidates (or have not yet decided).
- Each group is scored to determine if candidates are “viable”. Typically, a candidate must receive the support of at least 15% of the participants to be considered viable.
- If a candidate does not reach the threshold of viability, supporters are given the opportunity to leave their group and join another, or convince others to join theirs in a process known as “reorganization.” (They are also allowed to abandon the process altogether and just go home or join a group that has not yet been decided.)
- When all candidates have finally reached the viability threshold, the count is done again. Each viable candidate is then given at least one “delegate” to be elected by that group. The more supporters they get, the more delegates they are allowed.
- The state then uses a formula to determine how many “State Delegate Equivalents” the candidate won in each section of the meeting. This makes things a little more complicated, but generally speaking, the winner of the state’s equivalent delegates wins the majority of candidates sent to the Democratic National Convention, and thus wins the caucus in Iowa, Politico writes.
The Republican faction, by comparison, is quite simple and involves only a secret ballot, not a public one, when determining its delegates.
So why are they so important?
This is the first time that voters in any state have actually run for president, and it can carry a lot of weight. Think about how states with early voting might influence the outcome of out-of-state primaries and assemblies, donors and their contributions, and overall media attention.
As Vox senior political correspondent Andrew Prokop wrote in 2016, every winner nominated by a major presidential party since 1980 has won either a caucus in Iowa, a primaries in New Hampshire, or both. ( Hillary Clinton won the caucus in Iowa in 2016; President Trump lost the caucus but won the New Hampshire primaries.) To demonstrate how influential this gathering can become, Prokop called Obama’s 2008 victory in Iowa a significant turning point. “On the day of the meeting, he lagged behind Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in national polls. But a few days after he won there, he pulled away from her with an accuracy of 5 points. “
Will the 2020 caucuses be different from past years?
Yes. Unlike party meetings held decades ago, Iowa will unveil the raw vote count for each candidate before and after the reorganization process this year. Problem? Well, while it is intended to increase the transparency of the state caucus process, it means multiple candidates can claim victory in Iowa by winning one or both of the counts. While this will not affect the number of delegates, it may at least affect the story of candidates’ victories or defeats after the meeting.
This story was posted on 1/21/20 and updated on 2/3/2020 to reflect the times of the caucuses.