Why the 2020 US Census Could Change Everything, According to the Expert [updated]
The Supreme Court today blocked the inclusion of an important citizenship question in the 2020 US Census – a question President Trump could not help but answer.
“It seems quite ironic that our government, and the country can not ask the basic question of citizenship in a very expensive, and the more important the census, in this case for 2020,” – wrote it in Twitter . “I asked the lawyers if they could postpone the census, no matter how long, until the United States Supreme Court receives additional information, based on which it can make a final and decisive decision on this very important issue.”
While the issue remains locked for now, we spoke with Terry Anne Lowenthal , former director of staff for the Subcommittee on the Census and Population Census from 1987 to 1994, about the impact of this issue and the greater importance of citizenship that could change our political landscape forever.
What exactly is proposed to change in the census?
It’s pretty simple: a question that asks participants if they are citizens. This is one of several planned Census Bureau questions, including existing questions regarding age, gender, race, home ownership and kinship status.
“It was added in a rush and without considering the traditional question-determining process,” Lowenthal said over the phone. “I think the decision to add a question, if it remains in effect, really threatens the success of the 2020 census.”
What’s wrong with asking about citizenship status?
Much: mainly because it has serious potential to dissuade about 6.5 million people from participating, thus calling into question the value of the census as a whole. Lowenthal said skepticism about the Trump administration is the reason people might opt out.
“Unsurprisingly, many people, especially immigrants, regardless of their legal status, probably don’t believe this administration is following the law, and this is because of the president’s tough immigration policy,” she said by phone. “Understandably, many immigrants fear that this administration might bypass the law and obtain census data and use it to harm people, deport people, or deprive them of benefits.”
Wait, so Trump doesn’t have automatic access to my census information?
No, at least not now. This information is kept confidential by the Census Bureau, Lowenthal said.
“By law, the Census Bureau cannot share any personal responses or information about the census with any other government agency at any level, to a court, administrative court or private person for any purpose,” she said. “And besides, no other government agency or court can use the personal data of the census if they could somehow obtain it in order to harm anyone, including for law enforcement purposes of any kind.” However, this will not be the first time Trump has allegedly bypassed the law in his favor.
Will this affect the 2020 elections?
Not directly, no, but you need some context. After the census, states use the new population to re-draw constituencies and determine the reallocation of congressional seats; In other words, locations may change as a result of a new count. As for the 2020 elections, this will not affect congressional seats.
“We won’t even have the initial census data until the end of December 2020, after the elections,” Lowenthal said. “The details that are sent to states to redistribute counties, by law, must be sent to the states within one year after the [date] of the census, April 1, 2021.” However, this will make a big difference in 2022, when the count is likely to be final and districts will be redrawn.
Okay cool then I have nothing to worry about?
Well, yes, it is. The question of citizenship may well change everything we know about the current political landscape. The New York Times reports that the absence of 6.5 million people surveyed could significantly reduce democratic representation due to the loss of congressional seats and the risk of losing federal money in states such as Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, New York and Texas.
Worse, we’ll be stuck with it for a while with no apparent way out. “After the census is complete and the numbers are published, we will have to live with those numbers for the next decade.”
What happens next?
While the Supreme Court has currently blocked the question from being added to the census (and by an astonishing 5-4 vote), that doesn’t mean it wo n’t appear in the census yet . The Supreme Court has asked the Trump administration to provide evidence of the importance of the issue for the census and by June 30, when the census materials begin to be published (although this deadline may not be final and may even be extended until October).
Accordingly, Trump reportedly asked lawyers to postpone the census. For obvious reasons, this could create logistical problems with the March census. Until then, we’ll have to wait and see how Trump manages to bypass the Supreme Court.
This article was published on 04/23/19 and updated on 06/27/19 with new information following the ruling of the Supreme Court.