Best Time to Leave a Baseball Game Early Without Missing Out on Important Games
I fully admit that 90 percent of the Durham Bulls games I attended while living in North Carolina were actually just excuses to drink beer on the street. So it didn’t really matter to me when I came to the game or when I left, as long as I had enough time to have some beer inside, talk to my friends, and something moderately interesting happened on the pitch. …
Now that I live in San Francisco, I take the gaming part of the experience more seriously. I’m definitely here to see how the giants play, and I care about how they play (although the beer side of the equation is still important). However, I cannot say that I always arrive exactly on time and remain attached to the game throughout the entire gameplay. And I’m definitely not alone.
The average Major League baseball game lasts about three hours, which, unless it’s a really addictive game, is longer than most of us can pay attention to. And it’s one of the few big sporting events where it’s socially acceptable to come and go as you please. But when it comes to traffic, you don’t want to miss a single event.
Five Thirty Eight recently analyzed baseball games , particularly inning by inning of the 2010-15 regular season, to determine when you should leave and when you should stay in the game, especially considering your chances of missing out on a win for your home. team if you give up sooner.
At a basic level, it boils down to this:
Exit after the 1st inning if the leader is 6 rounds ahead.
Exit after the 2nd inning if the leader is 6 rounds ahead.
Exit after the 3rd inning if the leader has 5 rounds.
Exit after the 4th inning if the leader has 5 rounds.
Exit after the 5th inning if the leader is 4 runs ahead.
Exit after 6th inning if leader is 4 runs ahead.
Exit after the 7th inning if the leader is 3 wounds ahead.
Exit after the 8th inning if the leader is 2 wounds ahead.
These are not ideal odds, but they will give you a good idea of whether you will be missing out on something if you leave early. If you like it, Five Thirty Eight also has several graphs on their site that show how much late-game drama you would have missed if you left the games in 2016, based on this chart.
And if you’re having fun, there’s absolutely no reason to leave before the end of the 9th inning. But if you sit in your seats and think: “ShouldI stay or should I leave?” “This might be a good guide to consider.