Why Forecasts for Your Day Improve Your Forecast
Here’s a challenge you can try right now. Make a prediction about something else – about anything – the result of what you can personally check sometime in the next twenty-four hours. Your day will instantly be better – regardless of whether your prediction turns out to be right or wrong.
(The following is an excerpt from SuperBetter : A Revolutionary, Revolutionary Approach to Getting Stronger, Happier, Braver, and More Resilient, Based on Game Science.)
It can be big or small, stupid or serious. Here are some examples:
- How many emails will you receive in the next hour
- How many people in purple will you see today
- How many runs will your favorite baseball team score in the next game?
- How quickly you can remove the dishes without breaking anything
- How many likes will you get for your next Facebook post
- How long does it take you to walk around the block once, down to the second
- What temperature will be today at exactly 19:00 (the forecast cannot be fooled!)
- The exact amount of money in your bank account at the moment, down to a penny
- How many different people can you say thank you before bed today?
It’s simple. Pick one little thing to predict and then wait to make sure you’re right. Your day will instantly be better – regardless of whether your prediction turns out to be right or wrong.
Here’s why: Prediction is one of the most reliable and effective ways to activate the brain’s reward circuitry. “Every prediction you make, no matter how trivial, increases the level of dopamine in your brain,” says neuroscientist Dr. Judy Willis.
Dopamine, of course, is a neurochemical “reward” that is responsible for motivation, learning, and desire. And every time you make a prediction, two positive outcomes are now possible. Perhaps you are right – and it will be good! Or you may be wrong – it will give you information to help you make a more accurate prediction next time. Surprisingly, being wrong is good too, because your brain loves to learn. In fact, says Dr. Willis, the increase in dopamine is often greater when you learn something new and beneficial than when you are successful.
By the way, the neurochemistry of prediction is the same neurochemistry that makes video games so fun and energizing. Do you know that feeling of irrational motivation when you fail the same level of Candy Crush Saga ten times in a row and still want to try again? Or how can you be completely exhausted and burned out after a hard day, and then after twenty minutes of playing Call of Duty, you feel fully charged and mentally focused?
This is because every time you make a move or fire a weapon in a video game, your brain interprets it as a mini-prediction. Your brain is eagerly waiting to know if your action was successful, and if not, why not, so that you can take more effective action. This means that every move you make in the game triggers the release of dopamine . The more movements you do, the stronger the dopamine cascade. No wonder it is so easy to work so hard and never give up when we play. We benefit from a constant flow of neurochemicals that increase focus, optimism and determination.
Life is not a video game, but you can create the same state of heightened engagement in your daily life with the “forecasting” technique. Start every day with a prediction – any prediction! Right or wrong, you will get a boost in dopamine. It’s a win-win game. Use this trick when you’re bored, upset, or stressed – or just want to boost your motivation and energy. It is a quick and natural way to generate curiosity and attention, while strengthening the neural circuits that develop determination, optimism, and willpower. (And if you’re bored, upset, or stressed out with someone, ask them for a prediction! They’ll be much more fun to be with after that.)
Try Worst Scenario Bingo
A few weeks ago I heard from my good friend Calvin. He is thirty-five years old and is a married computer scientist with a Ph.D. We are familiar with the graduate school at UC Berkeley. Over the past decade, Calvin has worked in both high-tech and university research laboratories. He recently decided to venture out and find a full-time academic position.
“Career adventures are fast and frequent these days,” he emailed me. “I was interviewed at five universities.” In the letter, he sounded optimistic, but admitted that he was rather worried about one of his interviews at a leading research university.
“A friend of mine who interviewed us last year said that by the end of the meeting he was practically crying. Apparently, this professor began the interview by telling my friend that his dissertation was complete nonsense and that the university made a huge mistake in inviting him for an interview. ” Not the most encouraging story considering Calvin was supposed to meet the same professor!
Job interviews are stressful even in the best of circumstances, but when Calvin arrived on campus for a two-day interview, the tension only increased. “The first few people I met all warned me about my upcoming interview with the same professor, telling me how notoriously violent he was with junior researchers. Each had a military history of meeting him. Even the chairman of the hiring committee said they had doubts about including him on my schedule. Needless to say, I was pretty nervous the day before that day. I had to pull myself together. I thought, “How can I turn this meeting into a game and not something I’m afraid of?” So I decided to create a bingo game. I tried to predict the worst thing he could tell me that would upset me the most. I wrote them down plus a “free square” in the middle. I folded this bingo card and put it in my pocket when I came to the interview. “
Calvin sent me a picture of the map so I could see his gameplay in person. His custom bingo squares included moments that would make any interlocutor cringe: “Personal attack / criticism”, “Tests my knowledge / skills”, “Indicates flaws / mistakes / mistakes in my work”, “Provides links that I do not familiar with “,” Says that my work is derivative, obvious “,” Rejects it as unimportant “,” Accuses me of lack of principle. “
That helped? Definitely yes. “It turns out he told me a lot of these negative things, but it didn’t bother me at all,” Calvin said. “Every time he tried to make me feel small, I had to mentally mark the bingo field. It brought a lot of humor to a really stressful situation. “
Calvin won twice. First he won bingo. “The professor got the entire middle horizontal row,” he told me. “He really was bad, as everyone said!” But later Calvin won a real victory: he received a job offer from the university. In the end, he decided to take a job elsewhere, but a few offers helped him get a better deal.
Calvin’s approach was the perfect way to apply the neurochemistry of play to everyday life. He may not have deliberately hacked his dopamine pathway, but he definitely raised his dopamine levels every time he filled the bingo field. And since the simple act of predicting attracts attention and raises dopamine levels, the simple creation of a bingo board put Calvin in a much more determined and optimistic mood.
Worst-Scenario Bingo may not be the game you are looking forward to, because really, who wants to be in a stressful or unpleasant situation? But if you really need to show determination and resilience, this playful intervention is a great way to prepare your brain for resilience and success.
Check out the new book SuperBetter, to learn about more practical methods of application life-changing science of the games in your daily life.
Jane McGonigal, Ph.D., is the author of the New York Times bestselling book Reality Is Broken: Why Games Make Us Better and How They Can Change the World. Her new book SuperBetter is a comprehensive guide to psychology, neuroscience, and medical research from a decade on how play can help us become stronger, happier, healthier, and more resilient. You can find Jane on Twitter @avantgame .